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Why ‘safe haven’ gold and the stock market are now moving the same direction

Gold is historically considered a haven asset — a secure port in a storm. But that hasn’t stopped it from rising to a close to nine-year excessive, and inside putting distance of its file, whilst equities and different belongings historically seen as dangerous stay buoyant as they rebound from the pandemic-inspired selloff suffered earlier this yr.

Chalk it up, partially, to alternative prices. Efforts by international central banks to push down rates of interest, which have fallen into unfavorable territory in actual, or inflation-adjusted phrases, in the U.S. and are outright unfavorable in lots of components of the world, imply that buyers who maintain gold aren’t lacking out on the yield they’d earn from holding bonds in additional traditional circumstances.

“As real yields turn negative, opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets essentially vanish, particularly when viewed through the historical lens of fiat currencies and their purchasing power,” wrote Jeff deGraaf, chairman of Renaissance Macro Research, in a Thursday observe.

“This provides a continued tailwind for gold,” he stated referring to the chart under, which exhibits the gold worth inverted versus the actual Treasury yield curve:

Renaissance Macro Research

August gold
fell $16.80, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,803.80 an oz., a day after the most-active contract rose 0.6% to settle at $1,820.60, the highest since Sept. 14, 2011, in accordance with FactSet information. The weaker tone was accompanied by losses for shares, with the S&P 500
down 1%.

Gold stays up 0.8% for the week and greater than 18% in the yr so far, primarily based on the most actively traded contract, in accordance with FactSet.

Here’s one other look from Georgette Boele, precious-metal strategist at ABN Amro, in a Thursday observe. As the chart on the left exhibits, gold is moving more and more in lockstep with shares, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average
, behaving extra as a “risk-on” asset — a transfer aided by the fall in actual yields, as mirrored by the right-hand chart:

ABN Amro

“Firstly, central bank policy is a strong driver behind higher gold prices. Not only are official rates close to zero in a large number of countries, they will unlikely go up in our forecast horizon,” Boele wrote.

Most central banks have introduced quantitative easing, with the Federal Reserve embarking on limitless QE and the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank additionally implementing massive packages. “This sounds like music to the ears of gold bugs as money floods into the market and currencies begin to decline,” she stated.

In June, gold-backed ETFs recorded their seventh consecutive month of world constructive flows, including 104 metric tons, which is equal to $5.6 billion, or 2.7% of belongings beneath administration, the World Gold Council reported on Tuesday. For the first half of the yr, international internet inflows reached $39.5 billion, surpassing the earlier annual influx file from 2016.

Meanwhile, expectations the Federal Reserve may transfer to impose a type of “yield-curve control,” a coverage that goals to maintain yields at a specific stage, scope for upside in U.S. Treasury yields stay restricted, Boele stated.

That means if buyers do develop involved about the potential for inflation in the long run, it is going to change into seen by way of inflation expectations and unfavorable U.S. actual yields. Rising authorities finances deficits because of fiscal stimulus efforts by governments haven’t damage gold, both, she stated.

It all makes for a fairly bullish backdrop, Boele argued, noting that buyers have purchased each dip by the valuable metallic throughout the rally.

“Now the psychological resistance of $1,800 per ounce has been surpassed. It seems that investors will only be satisfied if the former (intraday) peak in gold prices at $1,921 per ounce is reached and taken out. Above that, the important psychological level of $2,000 per ounce is within reach,” she stated.

ABN Amro raised its year-end gold forecast to $1,900 an oz. from a earlier goal of $1,700 and now sees the yellow metallic at $2,000 an as soon as versus a earlier forecast of $1,800.

But buyers needs to be ready for a possible near-term dip, Boele stated, noting that speculative positions stay “substantial” and ETF positions at an all-time excessive.

“We still expect a sizeable correction in gold prices in a risk off environment when the dollar is back in favor. It is likely that this correction will be short-lived and be a buy-on-dips for investors eagerly waiting to step in,” she stated.

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